Month: October 2025

UK

What’s in the red box? During September, investors became increasingly preoccupied by possible measures in the forthcoming Autumn Budget. Concerns over the state of the UK’s public finances and worries over the possibility of tax increases pushed up the yield on the 30-year gilt to its highest level since 1998. Having grown by 0.4% in June, the UK economy stagnated in July as growth in the services and construction sectors was more than offset by a sharp contraction in the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, the Office for National Statistics revealed that government borrowing had hit £18 billion – its highest August level since 2020.

All that glitters record gold prices drove up share prices in the mining sector during September, propelling the FTSE 100 Index to a new high. Over the month, the FTSE 100 Index rose by 1.8%, while the FTSE 250 Index climbed by 1.9%. In the quarterly review of FTSE 100 Index constituents, luxury design house Burberry and Metlen Energy & Metals were promoted to the blue-chip index, replacing housebuilders Taylor Wimpey and student accommodation provider Unite Group.

Inflation remains the key to lower rates: the Bank of England (BoE) maintained its key base rate at 4% in September. In an interview with West Midlands Life, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey commented: “I think there is still some further journey down in interest rates to go. But exactly when that will be and how much it will be will depend on the path of inflation going down.” The annualised rate of inflation remained at 3.8% in August. Although food price inflation rose by 5.1% - its fastest pace since January 2024 – this was mitigated by slower growth in prices for clothing, footwear, and transport.

Lacklustre forecast from OECD: the Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development (OECD) predicted that a tighter fiscal stance, higher trade costs, and uncertainty are set to hamper external and domestic demand, causing UK growth to slow from 1.4% this year to 1% next year. The OECD also raised its forecast for average UK inflation during 2025 from 3.1% to 3.5%, representing the highest rate of any of the G7 countries. Elsewhere, having improved slightly in August, UK consumer confidence deteriorated once again in September, according to a survey by GfK that highlighted the impact of high day-to-day costs on UK households.

 

Global

First US rate cut since 2024: interest rates took centre stage in September as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) finally delivered a much-anticipated cut of 25 basis points, taking the key federal funds rate to a range of 4% to 4.25% – its lowest level2 since December 2022. Policymakers expect4 rates to ease to an average of 3.6% at the end of this year, 3.4% at the end of 2027, and 3.1% at the end of 2027. Fed Chair Jerome Powell commented: “It’s not a bad economy … we’ve seen much more challenging times” but also warned: “There are no risk-free paths now.”

US hits new highs: second-quarter US corporate earnings proved stronger than expected, providing a boost for investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index rose by 1.9% during September and registered six new closing highs over the month. As September ended, however, the prospect of a US government shutdown loomed, sending the price of the price of gold to a fresh record.

More rate cuts to come? The rate of US economic growth in the second quarter was revised up from 3.3% to 3.8%, representing its fastest pace since the third quarter of 2023. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development (OECD) expects the US economy to expand by 1.8% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, following growth of 2.8% in 2024. Annualised consumer price inflation reached 2.9% in August, while the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index remained steady at 2.9% in August, stoking hopes of further monetary easing.

France and Italy set to drag on European growth: having expanded by 0.6% in the first quarter of 2025, the eurozone’s economy expanded by 0.1% in the second quarter. The OECD expects the euro area’s economy to grow by 1.2% this year, slowing to 1% next year. Although fiscal expansion is predicted to provide a boost for Germany’s economy, consolidation is likely to curb growth in France and Italy. The Dax Index edged 0.1% lower over the month.

Stronger growth in Japan: following the resignation of Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the yield on the 30-year Japanese government bond (JGB) hit a new all-time high. Japan’s second-quarter economic growth was revised up from 1% to 2% year on year, lifted partly by a stronger contribution from private consumption. The Nikkei 225 Index rose by 5.2% during September.

As ever, if you have any questions regarding your investments, please do not hesitate to contact us by calling +44 (0) 7917 390 344  or emailing me at richardbrazier@culverfinancial.co.uk and we will be happy to talk to you.

 

UK

Challenges ahead for the big banks? The FTSE 100 Index reached a new all-time high during August amid widespread hopes that the US Federal Reserve will implement an interest-rate cut in September. However, the blue-chip index subsided from its highs towards the end of the month amid speculation that the UK government might levy a windfall tax on the banking sector. Over August as a whole, the FTSE 100 Index rose by 0.6%, while the FTSE 250 Index fell by 1.6%.

Base rate cut to 4%: having expanded by 0.7% during the first quarter of 2025, the UK economy grew by a better-than-expected 0.3% in the second quarter, underpinned by activity in the services and construction sectors. The Bank of England (BoE) cut its key interest rate to its lowest level since February 2023 during August. Central bank policymakers voted by five to four for a quarter-point cut, taking the base rate to 4%. The BoE predicted that policies in the Spring Statement are likely to dampen economic growth, and that measures, including higher employers’ National Insurance contributions and minimum wages, will stoke inflationary pressures. Although government borrowing proved lower than expected during July, tax increases are widely expected in the autumn Budget.

Persistent inflationary pressures: the rate cut appeared to provide a boost for consumer confidence, which reached its highest level since late 2024. However, the annualised rate of consumer price inflation rose to 3.8% in July – its highest level since January 2024 and undermining hopes for further monetary easing soon.

22% of UK companies cut dividends in Q2 2024 vs Q2 2023: according to Computershare’s Dividend Monitor, UK dividend payouts fell by 1.4% to £35.1 billion on a headline basis in the second quarter of 2025. On an underlying basis, dividends rose by 6.8% to £33.1 billion on a constant currency basis. 22% of companies cut their dividends during the period year on year.

£10 trillion AUM in the UK: the UK investment management industry registered a new peak of £10 trillion assets under management (AUM) in 2024, according to the Investment Association. The increase reflected strong market performance. For the first time, AUM managed on behalf of retail investors surpassed pension funds for the first time, while assets managed on behalf of overseas investors rose above 50%.

 

Global

US markets hit new highs: hopes of a September interest rate cut in the US provided a boost for global equity markets and drove up the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index to a new closing high. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell stoked expectations of a quarter-point cut next month during his speech at the annual Jackson Hole symposium, commenting: “The shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” Over August, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index rose by 3.2%.

Core inflation hits a five-month high: alongside hopes of imminent monetary easing, stronger-than-expected corporate earnings provided a boost for sentiment and helped to offset persistent inflationary pressures and disappointing labour market data. Although the annualised rate of consumer price inflation remained at 2.7% in July, core inflation rose to 3.1%, its highest level for five months. Producer price inflation rose at a monthly rate of 0.9% in July, representing its largest monthly increase since June 2022, as the impact of President Trump’s tariffs started to take effect. Meanwhile, fewer-than-expected new jobs were created in July, and the figures for June and May were revised down.

Tariffs – and the impact of tariffs – are set to remain in the spotlight. The eurozone’s economy expanded at an annualised rate of 1.4% during the second quarter, representing a slight slowdown from first-quarter growth of 1.5%. President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde highlighted an “already evident” tariff-related slowdown in economic activity in the eurozone, which is expected to continue into the third quarter. Elsewhere, share prices in France dropped sharply towards the end of August against a backdrop of rising political turmoil. Over August as a whole, France’s CAC 40 Index declined by 0.9%, while Germany’s Dax Index fell by 0.7%.

Nikkei 225 breaches 43,000 points: in Japan, the Nikkei 225 Index hit a fresh all-time high in August, boosted by hopes of a US interest rate cut. The benchmark index rose by 5.5% during the month, breaching 43,000 points. Following July’s trade agreement between Japan and the US, Bank of Japan policymakers said they believe that the country’s economic growth may moderate in the short term but expect growth to recover thereafter. Japan’s economy expanded at a quarterly rate of 0.3% during the second quarter, having grown by 0.1% in the first quarter.

As ever, if you have any questions regarding your investments, please do not hesitate to contact us by calling +44 (0) 7917 390 344  or emailing me at richardbrazier@culverfinancial.co.uk and we will be happy to talk to you.

 

Month: October 2025

UK

What’s in the red box? During September, investors became increasingly preoccupied by possible measures in the forthcoming Autumn Budget. Concerns over the state of the UK’s public finances and worries over the possibility of tax increases pushed up the yield on the 30-year gilt to its highest level since 1998. Having grown by 0.4% in June, the UK economy stagnated in July as growth in the services and construction sectors was more than offset by a sharp contraction in the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, the Office for National Statistics revealed that government borrowing had hit £18 billion – its highest August level since 2020.

All that glitters record gold prices drove up share prices in the mining sector during September, propelling the FTSE 100 Index to a new high. Over the month, the FTSE 100 Index rose by 1.8%, while the FTSE 250 Index climbed by 1.9%. In the quarterly review of FTSE 100 Index constituents, luxury design house Burberry and Metlen Energy & Metals were promoted to the blue-chip index, replacing housebuilders Taylor Wimpey and student accommodation provider Unite Group.

Inflation remains the key to lower rates: the Bank of England (BoE) maintained its key base rate at 4% in September. In an interview with West Midlands Life, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey commented: “I think there is still some further journey down in interest rates to go. But exactly when that will be and how much it will be will depend on the path of inflation going down.” The annualised rate of inflation remained at 3.8% in August. Although food price inflation rose by 5.1% - its fastest pace since January 2024 – this was mitigated by slower growth in prices for clothing, footwear, and transport.

Lacklustre forecast from OECD: the Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development (OECD) predicted that a tighter fiscal stance, higher trade costs, and uncertainty are set to hamper external and domestic demand, causing UK growth to slow from 1.4% this year to 1% next year. The OECD also raised its forecast for average UK inflation during 2025 from 3.1% to 3.5%, representing the highest rate of any of the G7 countries. Elsewhere, having improved slightly in August, UK consumer confidence deteriorated once again in September, according to a survey by GfK that highlighted the impact of high day-to-day costs on UK households.

 

Global

First US rate cut since 2024: interest rates took centre stage in September as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) finally delivered a much-anticipated cut of 25 basis points, taking the key federal funds rate to a range of 4% to 4.25% – its lowest level2 since December 2022. Policymakers expect4 rates to ease to an average of 3.6% at the end of this year, 3.4% at the end of 2027, and 3.1% at the end of 2027. Fed Chair Jerome Powell commented: “It’s not a bad economy … we’ve seen much more challenging times” but also warned: “There are no risk-free paths now.”

US hits new highs: second-quarter US corporate earnings proved stronger than expected, providing a boost for investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index rose by 1.9% during September and registered six new closing highs over the month. As September ended, however, the prospect of a US government shutdown loomed, sending the price of the price of gold to a fresh record.

More rate cuts to come? The rate of US economic growth in the second quarter was revised up from 3.3% to 3.8%, representing its fastest pace since the third quarter of 2023. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development (OECD) expects the US economy to expand by 1.8% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, following growth of 2.8% in 2024. Annualised consumer price inflation reached 2.9% in August, while the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index remained steady at 2.9% in August, stoking hopes of further monetary easing.

France and Italy set to drag on European growth: having expanded by 0.6% in the first quarter of 2025, the eurozone’s economy expanded by 0.1% in the second quarter. The OECD expects the euro area’s economy to grow by 1.2% this year, slowing to 1% next year. Although fiscal expansion is predicted to provide a boost for Germany’s economy, consolidation is likely to curb growth in France and Italy. The Dax Index edged 0.1% lower over the month.

Stronger growth in Japan: following the resignation of Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the yield on the 30-year Japanese government bond (JGB) hit a new all-time high. Japan’s second-quarter economic growth was revised up from 1% to 2% year on year, lifted partly by a stronger contribution from private consumption. The Nikkei 225 Index rose by 5.2% during September.

As ever, if you have any questions regarding your investments, please do not hesitate to contact us by calling +44 (0) 7917 390 344  or emailing me at richardbrazier@culverfinancial.co.uk and we will be happy to talk to you.

 

UK

Challenges ahead for the big banks? The FTSE 100 Index reached a new all-time high during August amid widespread hopes that the US Federal Reserve will implement an interest-rate cut in September. However, the blue-chip index subsided from its highs towards the end of the month amid speculation that the UK government might levy a windfall tax on the banking sector. Over August as a whole, the FTSE 100 Index rose by 0.6%, while the FTSE 250 Index fell by 1.6%.

Base rate cut to 4%: having expanded by 0.7% during the first quarter of 2025, the UK economy grew by a better-than-expected 0.3% in the second quarter, underpinned by activity in the services and construction sectors. The Bank of England (BoE) cut its key interest rate to its lowest level since February 2023 during August. Central bank policymakers voted by five to four for a quarter-point cut, taking the base rate to 4%. The BoE predicted that policies in the Spring Statement are likely to dampen economic growth, and that measures, including higher employers’ National Insurance contributions and minimum wages, will stoke inflationary pressures. Although government borrowing proved lower than expected during July, tax increases are widely expected in the autumn Budget.

Persistent inflationary pressures: the rate cut appeared to provide a boost for consumer confidence, which reached its highest level since late 2024. However, the annualised rate of consumer price inflation rose to 3.8% in July – its highest level since January 2024 and undermining hopes for further monetary easing soon.

22% of UK companies cut dividends in Q2 2024 vs Q2 2023: according to Computershare’s Dividend Monitor, UK dividend payouts fell by 1.4% to £35.1 billion on a headline basis in the second quarter of 2025. On an underlying basis, dividends rose by 6.8% to £33.1 billion on a constant currency basis. 22% of companies cut their dividends during the period year on year.

£10 trillion AUM in the UK: the UK investment management industry registered a new peak of £10 trillion assets under management (AUM) in 2024, according to the Investment Association. The increase reflected strong market performance. For the first time, AUM managed on behalf of retail investors surpassed pension funds for the first time, while assets managed on behalf of overseas investors rose above 50%.

 

Global

US markets hit new highs: hopes of a September interest rate cut in the US provided a boost for global equity markets and drove up the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index to a new closing high. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell stoked expectations of a quarter-point cut next month during his speech at the annual Jackson Hole symposium, commenting: “The shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” Over August, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index rose by 3.2%.

Core inflation hits a five-month high: alongside hopes of imminent monetary easing, stronger-than-expected corporate earnings provided a boost for sentiment and helped to offset persistent inflationary pressures and disappointing labour market data. Although the annualised rate of consumer price inflation remained at 2.7% in July, core inflation rose to 3.1%, its highest level for five months. Producer price inflation rose at a monthly rate of 0.9% in July, representing its largest monthly increase since June 2022, as the impact of President Trump’s tariffs started to take effect. Meanwhile, fewer-than-expected new jobs were created in July, and the figures for June and May were revised down.

Tariffs – and the impact of tariffs – are set to remain in the spotlight. The eurozone’s economy expanded at an annualised rate of 1.4% during the second quarter, representing a slight slowdown from first-quarter growth of 1.5%. President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde highlighted an “already evident” tariff-related slowdown in economic activity in the eurozone, which is expected to continue into the third quarter. Elsewhere, share prices in France dropped sharply towards the end of August against a backdrop of rising political turmoil. Over August as a whole, France’s CAC 40 Index declined by 0.9%, while Germany’s Dax Index fell by 0.7%.

Nikkei 225 breaches 43,000 points: in Japan, the Nikkei 225 Index hit a fresh all-time high in August, boosted by hopes of a US interest rate cut. The benchmark index rose by 5.5% during the month, breaching 43,000 points. Following July’s trade agreement between Japan and the US, Bank of Japan policymakers said they believe that the country’s economic growth may moderate in the short term but expect growth to recover thereafter. Japan’s economy expanded at a quarterly rate of 0.3% during the second quarter, having grown by 0.1% in the first quarter.

As ever, if you have any questions regarding your investments, please do not hesitate to contact us by calling +44 (0) 7917 390 344  or emailing me at richardbrazier@culverfinancial.co.uk and we will be happy to talk to you.

 

Market Review – October 2025

By

UK What’s in the red box? During September, investors became increasingly preoccupied by possible measures in the forthcoming Autumn Budget. Concerns over the state of the UK’s public finances and worries over the possibility of tax increases pushed up the yield on the 30-year gilt to its highest level since 1998. Having grown by 0.4% in

Market Review – September 2025

By

UK Challenges ahead for the big banks? The FTSE 100 Index reached a new all-time high during August amid widespread hopes that the US Federal Reserve will implement an interest-rate cut in September. However, the blue-chip index subsided from its highs towards the end of the month amid speculation that the UK government might levy a